Social Security, Chained CPI and the Obama Budget

The Obama budget appears to mirror the proposals that Obama had previously put forward for a so-called "Grand Bargain" to reduce the deficit. It includes proposals for closing tax loopholes, increasing taxes (mostly on wealthy individuals), and it includes some proposals for spending cuts.

One of the centerpieces of proposed cost reductions in Social Security, probably by limiting cost of living increases to a less generous definition of inflation, known as the "chained CPI."

The current measure, known as "CPI-W," calculates inflation by following the increase in a "shopping basket" of common purchases. Chained CPI is similar, but it takes into account the sorts of substitutions that consumers might make in response to increasing prices.

Other measures of inflation are also possible, such as indexing Social Security payments to growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a measurement of the overall economy. Or payments can be indexed to the growth in the median worker's wages.

Social Security Trust Fund

A common refrain by the AARP and others is that Social Security is "solvent." By this, they mean that the money in the "Social Security Trust Fund" will continue to fund benefits to the 2030s or so. In fact, the "trust fund" consists of what amounts to IOUs, as the Unified Budget allowed the Federal Government to mask the true size of the budget deficit by borrowing agains future taxpayers' payments.

In effect, the next generation of taxpayers will need to be double-taxed, to pay both the normal pension payments and additional taxes to pay for the deficit that was financed by raiding the trust fund.

The realization that the Baby Boom generation effectively financed deficit spending at the cost of the generation that will have to pay their social security is sometimes referred to as "generational theft".

Other Options

There are other options for achieving Social Security savings.

One is to adjust the so-called "primary insurance amount" (PIA) formula to give less of a benefit to upper-income earners. Social Security payments are progressive in the sense that payments are not proportional to taxes paid into the system, but further adjustments to the formula can result in cost savings that disproportionately affect upper income earners.

Another is to use so-called "progressive price indexing" (PPI), in which upper income earners are indexed differently than lower income earners.

Nobody Plays Politics Better than the NRA

The Week reports on how the NRA's political mobilization has succeeded even in the wake of the mass shooting at Sandy Hook.

Most Americans support common sense types of gun control, such as background checks at gun shows. But bolstered by the cash and cutthroat reputation of the NRA, gun expansionists have beaten off all attempts to expand federal gun regulations. In many cases, like the riders to the budget to reduce the Federal Government's ability to track gun violence, the NRA has actually decreased controls on gun sales.

NOTE (10 April 2013): An deal may be in the works to allow increased background checks during gun show sales and gun sales through other venues.

What does it mean to be Christian?

Lost Christianities book is one of my favorite books about religious history. The author integrates information from several different sources in an engaging tour of what it meant to be a Christian in the first few centuries AD.

New techniques and new document finds have completely re-written what we thought we knew about the history of Christianity. It turns out that the Christian ecosystem was much richer and more diverse than most people understand. The variety of different beliefs held among people who called themselves "Christian" is staggering. Fortunately, new documentary evidence illuminates what these people believed, and what sorts of books they considered to be scripture.

Ehrman also explains the history of the more traditional books in the canon. The New Testament takes on additional life once you understand the history behind each of the books.

GOP Efforts at Voter Suppression Continue

The GOP is continuing its efforts at voter suppression with the recent veto override in Arkansas. Governor Beebe correctly called this law an expensive solution to a non-existent problem.

Nobody is fooling anybody. These laws have nothing to do with stopping voter fraud. There have been no reputable results showing a problem with voter fraud by people who come to the polls on voting day. Everyone admits that fraud is much easier to carry out with mail-in ballots, but the GOP has made no moves to tighten up on absentee balloting, because they believe that they have an advantage among those ballots.

Book Review: "Bailout" by Barofsky

Barofsky has a unique perspective on what unfolded in the series of bailouts following the 2008 economic meltdown. He had the responsibility for overseeing the disbursement of an unprecedented amount of money at a phenomenal velocity. In this extraordinarily readable memoir, Barofsky explains some of the roots of the financial collapse and doesn't hesitate to call out powerful interests for their part in destabilizing the financial system.

Given the urgency of the situation and the speed of the response, it would have been impossible for anyone to prevent fraud. And fraud did occur, as Barofsky points out in this book. But with all the handicaps Barofsky's team faced, they did a remarkable job keeping the bailout as clean as they did.

Barofsky also points out the importance of reform in our financial institutions, how little has been done, and the role that money played in influencing the lack of response. His criticism is on point when pointing out the weaknesses in our financial infrastructure. And since the "too big to fail" companies have continued to grow larger while engaging in the same risky behavior as before, we will be condemned to repeat our recent history again.

Don Young is a Bigoted Pinhead

Every now and again, a politician lets his mask slip. Then you get a glimpse of what really lives under the carefully presented public image.

Alaska Representative Don Young's latest gaffe included his referring to hispanic migrant workers as "wetbacks."

He assures us that he "meant no disrespect" and explains that this was a term in common use when he was growing up.

It turns out that when I grew up, we referred to racists as "bigoted pinheads." I'm sure that Don will understand that I mean just as little disrespect as he did in his original quote.

The Atlantic Wire posted an interesting history of GOP attempts to reach out to people who weren't "stuffy old white men."

September 11

Since the minute the planes struck, the September 11 attacks have been fodder for conspiracy wackos, hucksters, and assorted activists. Why is it that people with only the most distant connection to the 9/11 attacks insist on using them to push their own private agendas?

Cheney and his cronies used fabricated data and intimidation to push their agenda in favor of an invasion of Iraq. All the blood and all the treasure wasted on this so-called "War on Terror" came about because powerful men decided to create a phony story linking Saddam to 9/11.

"Never Forget!" exclaimed the bumper stickers of their supporters, even as they rapidly forgot the war against al Quaeda in order to push an ill-advised and worse-executed grab of Iraq's oil fields.

Waves of fruitcakes are using the 9/11 attacks to push various conspiracy theories about who was "really" behind the attacks. The CIA or the Mossad or some other shadowy group is supposed to have planted explosives to bring the towers down. No amount of debunking will ever be enough for these nut jobs, though several people have tried:

Screw Loose Change

Debunking 911

Debunking the 9/11 Myths: Special Report

I wish that people could accept the attacks for what they were: An atrocity motivated by the hatred of a few extremists. One of the ironies of the attack is the way it has been used by other extremists to justify actions and attitudes that look an awful lot like those found among the attackers.